Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will reach a specific size threshold by December 30, 2026. The current 46% probability reflects uncertainty about the Fed's monetary policy path over the next seven months, particularly whether interest rates remain elevated or decline. The primary driver is the pace of interest rate cuts between now and December's final Fed meeting. If inflation remains persistent and the Fed maintains or raises rates, the balance sheet is less likely to expand. Conversely, if economic conditions weaken and the Fed cuts rates aggressively, asset purchases may increase, expanding the balance sheet. The December 9 FOMC meeting represents the key decision point closest to year-end, where the Fed will signal its final policy stance and any extraordinary measures.

• ›The upper bound of the federal funds rate is priced to remain between 3.25% and 3.50% after the December 2026 meeting, based on contract prices, suggesting markets expect modest rate cuts rather than aggressive easing
• ›June 2026 expectations show 56% probability of no rate change and zero dissents, indicating near-term policy stability that could constrain balance sheet expansion
• ›Inflation data releases between now and December 9 will significantly influence whether the Fed maintains restrictive policy or begins additional accommodative measures like asset purchases
• ›The December 9 FOMC meeting is the final scheduled decision before year-end and will determine the policy framework that shapes balance sheet size through December 30
• ›Market pricing shows very low probabilities for rates above 4.0% by December, with only 7¢ pricing on above-4.0% scenarios, suggesting limited expectations for aggressive tightening

What moved the line

• Jun 1Above $6.5 trillion↑81pp2→83¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 1Above $6.6 trillion↑78pp2→80¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 1Above $6.7 trillion↑69pp1→70¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 4Above $6.4 trillion↑60pp27→87¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 1Above $6.2 trillion↑11pp11→22¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds