What is the current probability for "St. Louis Battlehawks vs Orlando Storm winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 65¢ (65% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 2, 2026. 11 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "St. Louis Battlehawks vs Orlando Storm winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3328.5% and 3605.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "St. Louis Battlehawks vs Orlando Storm winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

St. Louis Battlehawks vs Orlando Storm winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that St. Louis Battlehawks vs Orlando Storm winner?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing May 2, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the displayed 0¢ price unreliable and the extreme 2715.4% implied yields meaningless.

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65¢

Bid/Ask 51/65¢·Spread 14¢·Vol $83.2·OI $121.13·Closes May 2, 2026·11d remaining

KXUFLGAME-26APR25STLORL-ORL

7-day price17 snapshots · 4 regime

57¢51¢ current

Apr 1945¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the displayed 0¢ price unreliable and the extreme 2715.4% implied yields meaningless. The 29¢ spread is unusually wide for a binary contract, and with only 13 days to expiry and the game apparently already scheduled for April 25, 2026 (past the current reference date), there's potential resolution ambiguity or the event may have already occurred. The cliff risk index of 1 combined with zero liquidity suggests this market should be avoided until meaningful trading activity emerges.

Resolution rules

If the Orlando Storm win the St. Louis Battlehawks vs Orlando Storm professional UFL football game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3328.5%

IY (No) 3605.7%

Adj IY 2616%

CRI 1

RV 219%

VR 0.38

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3328.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3605.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2616%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	219%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.38	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.27	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

14¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 10:15:55 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 10:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUFLGAME-26APR25STLORL-ORL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →