Will Mayes Middleton win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?
Prediction markets currently give a 72% probability that Will Mayes Middleton win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?. This contract trades at 72¢ on Polymarket, closing May 26, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $7.25M open interest, suggesting the position is largely locked in and illiquid at the quoted 77¢ price.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $7.25M open interest, suggesting the position is largely locked in and illiquid at the quoted 77¢ price. The asymmetric implied yields (274.5% for Yes vs. 3077% for No) reflect the steep probability skew, with the No side offering outsized returns if Middleton loses, though the 6¢ spread indicates some pricing uncertainty. With 40 days to the May 26, 2026 runoff and a modest 2¢ price decline over seven days, the market appears relatively stable but should be approached cautiously given the liquidity constraints and potential for sharp repricing if new information emerges.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Texas Republican Primary runoff election for state Attorney General, scheduled for May 26, 2026. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x84c1792ac53b1434dac13fab7baf36b812d0cbb2cf30630badb50b21b3310da9 yes 100