Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner
Leader sits at 67% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mayes Middleton
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Chip Roy
Spread
54pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
May 26, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner
Analysis
This probability indicates that the leading candidate in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff has a 50% chance of winning according to prediction market participants. The race remains highly competitive, with the runner-up polling at 42%, suggesting substantial uncertainty about the final outcome. Market pricing reflects divided opinion on whether the frontrunner can secure victory in a two-candidate matchup. The runoff will be decided by Texas Republican voters on the scheduled election date, with the winner determined by total vote count. Key factors influencing this probability include recent polling trends, candidate fundraising and turnout operations, regional support patterns, and the margin-of-victory contracts suggesting traders expect a relatively close result rather than a decisive victory. The resolution depends entirely on actual voter behavior in the runoff election.
- ›Margin-of-victory contract pricing (16-23¢ for tight 0-9% margins) indicates traders expect a competitive race rather than a blowout, constraining the leader's probability below 70%
- ›Runner-up candidate remains at 42% probability, reflecting measurable support and suggesting neither candidate has achieved decisive dominance in current assessments
- ›Turnout expectations matter significantly: the 1.8M vote threshold contract at 7¢ suggests uncertainty about whether turnout will meet historical levels, affecting both candidates differently
- ›Recent polling data and endorsement patterns would be concrete inputs voters are weighing to assign 50% vs 42% rather than closer probabilities
- ›The timing of any major campaign developments, debate performance, or late-breaking news between now and election day could materially shift the 8-point gap between leader and runner-up
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (67% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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