What is the current probability for "Top Coding AI this month?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 21¢ (21% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Top Coding AI this month?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 15499.4% and 1095.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Top Coding AI this month?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Top Coding AI this month?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Top Coding AI this month?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 67,632% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a significant analytical edge for contrarian traders.

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21¢

Bid/Ask 21/27¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $2,023.17·OI $7,661.32·Closes Apr 30, 2026·9d remaining

KXTECHRANKLISTAICODE-26APR30-CHAT

7-day price222 snapshots · 53 regime

26¢21¢ current

Apr 151¢Apr 21

Analysis

33h ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 67,632% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a significant analytical edge for contrarian traders. The price has doubled from 2¢ to 4¢ over seven days on just $607 in 24-hour volume, indicating thin liquidity ($3,841 open interest) where small trades can move prices dramatically. With only 10 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 19, this contract faces substantial binary event risk, making the outsized yield figures potentially misleading given the low absolute trading activity.

Resolution rules

If ChatGPT is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Apr 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 15499.4%

IY (No) 1095.2%

Adj IY 11071%

CRI 4

RV 3957%

VR 1.58

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	15499.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1095.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	11071%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3957%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.58	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.29	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 5:27:58 PM

Observability mediumEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 5:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTECHRANKLISTAICODE-26APR30-CHAT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →