Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?

The 30¢ price reflects skepticism about Trump appearing on a U.S. gold coin within 79 days, yet the asymmetric implied yields (1082% for Yes vs. 199% for No) signal substantial tail-risk premium on a low-probability outcome. The 7-day rally from 21¢ to 30¢ combined with extreme realized volatility of 580% and a vol ratio of 2.09 suggests recent news flow or speculation, though modest 24-hour volume of $19.5K indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings on new information. With a Cliff Risk Index of 2 and only 79 days to resolution, any legislative action or executive order would likely trigger sharp repricing in this illiquid market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any gold coin featuring Donald Trump’s likeness is officially issued by the U.S. Mint by July 4th, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A coin will be considered “officially issued” if the U.S. Mint makes it available for any form of public purchase, order, or distribution. Announcement of a coin without qualifying issuance will not count. A qualifying coin must be legal tender, but does not need to be minted for general circulation. Commemorative coins minted for a limited production run will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Mint; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade