Will Abraham Enriquez be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Abraham Enriquez be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing May 26, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10k open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and potentially trapped.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10k open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and potentially trapped. The 10,577% implied yield on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the 8¢ price combined with minimal liquidity, indicating this contract offers poor risk-adjusted returns despite the headline figure. With the Republican primary already scheduled for March 3, 2026—just 52 days away—the 40-day expiry creates near-term resolution risk, and the flat 7-day price action suggests limited market confidence in Enriquez's nomination prospects at this low probability level.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd9742f18cef305a2cc778f412b33d106f2905469bfa1f031b8eb874ff90b8690 yes 100