TX-19 Republican Primary Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$85
1 contracts
Closes
May 26, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
TX-19 Republican Primary Winner: Abraham Enriquez
TX-19 Republican Primary Winner: Abraham Enriquez
0xd9742f…8690
Analysis
This 93% probability reflects betting market expectations that a specific candidate will win the Texas-19 Republican primary. The high concentration suggests substantial confidence in the front-runner, though the 5% second-place option indicates meaningful uncertainty remains. Key drivers of this level include the candidate's incumbency status, fundraising advantage, and endorsement patterns in the district. Upcoming factors that could shift the probability include debate performances, late-breaking controversies, or shifts in voter preference as reflected in internal polling or turnout models. The primary election date will ultimately resolve whether the current market leader materializes as the nominee.
- ›Current betting volume on Polymarket ($23,457 in 24-hour volume on comparable TX races) indicates moderate liquidity and real money at stake behind these odds
- ›The 93% leader versus 5% runner-up spread suggests the market is pricing in either a dominant frontrunner or very high barriers to entry for challengers
- ›Absence of recent polling data in the contract information means current prices may not fully incorporate latest voter sentiment shifts
- ›Texas primary timing and filing deadline dates directly determine candidate qualification and remain concrete reference points for probability recalibration
- ›Comparison contracts show varying confidence levels across similar races (Paxton Senate at 57%, Barr at 96%), indicating district-specific factors rather than uniform Republican primary dynamics
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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