What is the current probability for "Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 80¢ (80% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 26, 2026. 34 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 271.1% and 4337.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Polymarket, closing May 26, 2026.

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80¢

Bid/Ask 75/85¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $3.52·OI $11,693.008·Closes May 26, 2026·34d remaining

0x4ac1ad498fa8e583054cbdb8ce8390648ee8584fa048e07de45f46279527fded

7-day price452 snapshots · 4 regime

87¢81¢ current

Apr 860¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 271.1%

IY (No) 4337.4%

Adj IY 3795%

CRI 4

RV 273%

VR 1.64

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	271.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4337.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3795%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	273%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.64	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:21:09 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x4ac1ad498fa8e583054cbdb8ce8390648ee8584fa048e07de45f46279527fded yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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