TX-30 Republican Primary Winner

30-day trend

Analysis

The current 86% probability indicates markets assess a specific candidate as heavily favored to win the TX-30 Republican primary, with roughly one-in-seven odds assigned to the runner-up. This level reflects available polling data, candidate funding, endorsements, and organizational strength in the district. The probability could shift based on new survey releases, campaign developments such as endorsements from major figures, or media events affecting candidate viability. The primary election itself—scheduled for the date of Texas's next general election cycle—serves as the ultimate resolution point. Between now and voting, shifts in fundraising reports (which become public on predictable schedules) and any debate performances or scandals would likely move markets, though the wide gap suggests the leading candidate faces a high bar to lose.

• ›Recent internal or public polling showing the leader's margin in TX-30 compared to the runner-up
• ›Candidate cash-on-hand and fundraising trajectory relative to competitors
• ›Endorsements from Texas Republican establishment figures or national political actors
• ›Any notable gaffes, scandals, or media coverage affecting candidate perception in the district
• ›Voter turnout expectations and demographic composition of likely primary voters

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds