Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Polymarket, closing May 7, 2026. Bayern München's Champions League final odds sit at 58¢ with extreme volatility (1837% realized, 2523.6% implied yield on the "No" side), suggesting significant uncertainty despite the relatively stable 7-day price movement from 57¢ to 58¢.
Analysis
Bayern München's Champions League final odds sit at 58¢ with extreme volatility (1837% realized, 2523.6% implied yield on the "No" side), suggesting significant uncertainty despite the relatively stable 7-day price movement from 57¢ to 58¢. With only 20 days to expiry and $26.7K in 24-hour volume against $37.2K open interest, liquidity is moderate but the 2¢ spread is tight, indicating reasonable market efficiency. The exceptionally high implied yields and 3.20 vol ratio signal that resolution events are likely imminent—Bayern's Champions League campaign status will likely be determined well before the May 7 close date.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Champions League final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0xc1109800f5de195bbbbaf81b783de4792b6a8a2fbe9b604c715a39c5ae2a2a47 yes 100