Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Arsenal's 2025–26 Champions League odds sit at 28¢ with an unusually extreme 2137% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty given the team's historical underperformance in Europe. With only 44 days until expiry and $453k open interest against modest $47k daily volume, the market shows thin liquidity that could amplify volatility, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates some depth at current levels. The 7-day price stability (26¢ to 28¢) combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 3 suggests this is primarily a speculative position rather than a liquid betting market, making the extreme yield figures potentially misleading given execution risk.

Resolution rules

This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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