Will Max Holloway fight Conor McGregor next?

The 14-cent cross-venue gap between Polymarket (55¢) and Kalshi (41¢) suggests meaningful disagreement on Holloway-McGregor odds, with Polymarket pricing a 55% probability versus Kalshi's 41%, creating potential arbitrage. Liquidity is extremely thin at $77.93 in 24h volume against $326k open interest, and the massive 748% realized volatility paired with a 7.47 vol ratio indicates this market has experienced extreme price swings despite showing no movement over the past week. The 92.7% implied yield on the Yes side is attractive but comes with substantial cliff risk given the long 322-day expiration and low trading activity, suggesting this market may lack sufficient information flow (4.3 arrivals/hour) to efficiently price McGregor's next opponent announcement.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Conor McGregor is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Conor McGregor is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Conor McGregor is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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