US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that US strike on Cuba by December 31?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The market has rallied 21% over seven days to 41¢, reflecting elevated geopolitical tensions, though the 203.6% annualized yield on the Yes side suggests traders view this as a tail risk rather than a base case.
Analysis
The market has rallied 21% over seven days to 41¢, reflecting elevated geopolitical tensions, though the 203.6% annualized yield on the Yes side suggests traders view this as a tail risk rather than a base case. With $44.4K open interest against $9.8K daily volume, liquidity is moderate but the 1¢ spread indicates reasonable market depth for a binary event 258 days out. The extreme realized volatility of 246% and vol ratio of 1.66 signal significant uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and low cliff risk index suggest no imminent catalyst is priced in.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x3de0f3d7d7efb40cde68e814d40a0b232832083653c8e78260eb999baa967de0 yes 100