US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

The 10¢ price reflects extremely low tail-risk pricing for direct US-Russia military engagement, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 1274% annualized yield that suggests either genuine conviction in de-escalation or severe liquidity constraints given the modest $34.9k daily volume against $14.1m open interest. The 530% realized volatility and 9/10 cliff risk index indicate this market experiences sharp repricing events, yet the relatively stable 7-day price action (9¢ to 10¢) and neutral regime score suggest current pricing has stabilized despite geopolitical tensions. With 258 days to expiry and a 2¢ spread, traders seeking asymmetric payoffs may find value, though the thin liquidity relative to open interest poses execution risk for larger positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between January 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Regime

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