Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Polymarket, closing June 16, 2026. David Williams is priced at 22¢ on Polymarket with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2207% for a "Yes" resolution, suggesting either extremely low conviction in his nomination odds or potential mispricing relative to the 1¢ spread and thin $132 daily volume.
Analysis
David Williams is priced at 22¢ on Polymarket with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2207% for a "Yes" resolution, suggesting either extremely low conviction in his nomination odds or potential mispricing relative to the 1¢ spread and thin $132 daily volume. The 1¢ cross-venue gap to Kalshi (21¢) is negligible, but the 643% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 4 indicate this market has experienced sharp swings, likely driven by sparse information arrival (0.5 events per hour) with 59 days until the June 2026 primary. The $14.3M open interest vastly exceeds daily volume, suggesting most positions are longer-dated and illiquid, making this a speculative market vulnerable to sudden repricing on campaign developments.
Also on kalshi at 21¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x01a349b16eeeb8db599767f340799c0ca028c5b85153d6ca1fe75a4c60d7b963 yes 100