Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 26¢ reflects a heavily Republican-favored race in WA-05, with the No side offering a more modest 64.7% implied yield versus the extreme 524.4% yield on the Yes side, indicating asymmetric risk pricing typical of deep underdog positions. With $14.1M open interest but only $208 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is severely constrained despite the substantial notional exposure, suggesting this market may struggle to attract additional traders and could face execution challenges near expiry in 198 days. The 4¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest relatively stable pricing, though the 524% Yes yield warrants caution as it reflects both low probability and the illiquidity premium inherent in thin markets.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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