Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Polymarket, closing May 12, 2026. Jeffrey Kessler's odds have collapsed 21 percentage points over the past week (from 77¢ to 56¢), suggesting a significant negative development in his candidacy despite the market remaining relatively tight across venues (1¢ spread on Polymarket, 56-57¢ cross-venue).
Analysis
Jeffrey Kessler's odds have collapsed 21 percentage points over the past week (from 77¢ to 56¢), suggesting a significant negative development in his candidacy despite the market remaining relatively tight across venues (1¢ spread on Polymarket, 56-57¢ cross-venue). The extreme implied yields (1301% for Yes, 2108% for No) and elevated realized volatility of 160% reflect high uncertainty with just 22 days to resolution, though the modest 24-hour volume of $1,655 and tight spread indicate limited liquidity may be amplifying price swings rather than reflecting fundamental shifts.
Also on kalshi at 60¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia. If no 2026 West Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x480bfbf8e0409933c542bdc1487fd3602c17d55bfb74e70e70ba618719d2268c yes 100