Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?

The 4-cent price implies an extremely low 4% probability of Bitcoin touching $10,000 by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 3,383% implied yield, suggesting either severe mispricing or market skepticism about tail-risk scenarios. With $67.7M in open interest but only $3.3K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is severely constrained relative to the position size, creating potential slippage concerns and exit difficulty for large holders. The 259-day timeframe and zero bid-ask spread mask a cliff risk index of 24, indicating meaningful tail-risk concentration that could amplify volatility near expiration if Bitcoin approaches the $10,000 level.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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