Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 27¢ price implies Bitcoin needs to appreciate roughly 37% from current levels to clear $110k by end-2026, yet the Yes contract offers an exceptional 401% risk-adjusted yield, suggesting the market may be underpricing this outcome given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the 259-day timeframe.
Analysis
The 27¢ price implies Bitcoin needs to appreciate roughly 37% from current levels to clear $110k by end-2026, yet the Yes contract offers an exceptional 401% risk-adjusted yield, suggesting the market may be underpricing this outcome given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the 259-day timeframe. Volume is thin at under $2k daily against $83k open interest, creating potential liquidity constraints, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates reasonable pricing efficiency on Kalshi. The realized volatility of 549% and vol ratio of 2.90 signal elevated uncertainty, but the neutral regime and modest recent price recovery (24¢ to 26¢ over seven days) suggest this discount may reflect genuine skepticism rather than a mispricing opportunity.
Also on polymarket at 4¢(Δ +23¢)
Resolution rules
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $109999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-109999.99 yes 100