↓ 5,000 · What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026
↓ 5,000 is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?.
Price history
3¢ current
Contract brief
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Outcome
↓ 5,000
Rank
#13 of 16
Leader
↓ 55,000 51¢
Range
1¢-51¢
Family volume
$29.2M
Identifier
0xe681a632...3469
May 24, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$305
Family rank
#13 of 16
16 outcomes · What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$29.2M
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0xe681a632…3469
Event family
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$29.2M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
↓ 55,000 51¢
Current share
2%
↓ 55,000
polymarket · 0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c
↓ 50,000
polymarket · 0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56
↑ 100,000
polymarket · 0xdaa4866bae18be58c5a79d2aeeffd035ec78f1bb49dbd88f72993997778a990f
↓ 45,000
polymarket · 0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee
↑ 110,000
polymarket · 0x63eaf41ce1f475323e2202d7dfa3b1def8b82cd166f7007c50bfbf47615c7b01
↓ 35,000
polymarket · 0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2
↑ 130,000
polymarket · 0x885a6abefad122348b4fbd503473d7fd1f9035d0438cf988a7591620f316a859
↑ 140,000
polymarket · 0xf0a4c0bc8a8162f0ac95b5a5af7fa665d20a19ca0db03b9117514dafc695f15e
↓ 25,000
polymarket · 0xe326d1abf5fb59b82ecfdff3348e75f90561eace327ba1bdc8d38d045ddbe775
↑ 150,000
polymarket · 0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda
↓ 15,000
polymarket · 0xa885bfe10688056a9d0f4e9a1523bfa18f66fda065f0400d714ba54776083713
↑ 200,000
polymarket · 0xac32e73aa9e0dae801d88d4f81efd2ef3fa0f04b815f3a0e74426f0762e668cd
↑ 250,000
polymarket · 0x6fefc0438c7598b23531457c8c60541990d0786bd4bd9dfc3eabc8d95c291092
↓ 5,000
polymarket · 0xe681a6326237f3b17ce8622728b6cd104281dfe4d2b38f4520fd7f1734cf3469
↑ 500,000
polymarket · 0xf3519e50e99fa353443d45060813453b1b717e463b5b76c306e85e8f5b026116
↑ 1,000,000
polymarket · 0xa7d7ed69cfd6107e5e005556730dcf45727c1cdd1001f0378f5e471526181c47
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.