Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. Bitcoin reaching $110,000 by end-2026 is priced at just 22¢, implying a 22% probability despite an extraordinary 503.7% annualized yield for "Yes" positions—a significant risk premium suggesting either deep skepticism about the target or substantial tail risk.
Analysis
Bitcoin reaching $110,000 by end-2026 is priced at just 22¢, implying a 22% probability despite an extraordinary 503.7% annualized yield for "Yes" positions—a significant risk premium suggesting either deep skepticism about the target or substantial tail risk. The market shows unusual stability with zero price movement over 7 days despite 407% realized volatility and a 1.88 vol ratio, indicating potential mispricing or low conviction among traders despite $45M in open interest. With 257 days to expiry and modest $6M daily volume, the tight 1¢ spread masks what could be meaningful liquidity constraints for larger position sizes.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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sf trade 0x63eaf41ce1f475323e2202d7dfa3b1def8b82cd166f7007c50bfbf47615c7b01 yes 100