What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1161.9% and 17.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

11¢

Bid/Ask 10/11¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $2,951.065·OI $53,909.599·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0xf0a4c0bc8a8162f0ac95b5a5af7fa665d20a19ca0db03b9117514dafc695f15e

7-day price62 snapshots · 79 regime

13¢11¢ current

Apr 911¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1161.9%

IY (No) 17.7%

Adj IY 1056%

CRI 8

RV 540%

VR 1.67

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1161.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	17.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1056%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	540%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.67	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	4.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.09	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:20:05 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xf0a4c0bc8a8162f0ac95b5a5af7fa665d20a19ca0db03b9117514dafc695f15e yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions