Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing in a 51% probability of Bitcoin touching $50,000 by end-2026, with notably asymmetric yields favoring the "No" side at 146.7% versus 135.4% for "Yes," suggesting sophisticated traders may be underweighting downside risk despite Bitcoin's current proximity to that level. Volume of $43.4K against $44.5K open interest indicates moderate liquidity with a tight 1¢ spread, though the 198% realized volatility and 1.63 vol ratio signal elevated uncertainty that could drive significant price swings over the 259-day window. The 7-day price decline from 59¢ to 51¢ represents a notable 13% pullback, potentially reflecting recent Bitcoin strength that's reduced near-term dip probability, though the neutral regime (0.341) and 0.5/h information arrival rate suggest the market remains responsive to macro catalysts.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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