Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

The 21¢ price implies only a 21% probability of Bitcoin touching $35,000 over the next 259 days, suggesting the market views a ~32% decline from current levels as unlikely despite substantial volatility potential. The asymmetric implied yields (530.1% for Yes vs. 37.5% for No) reflect the extreme risk-reward skew typical of tail-risk markets, though the modest $20.4K daily volume and $57.4K open interest indicate relatively thin liquidity for a binary outcome with such high leverage. Notable is the sharp 5-cent price decline over seven days (26¢ to 21¢), suggesting either deteriorating conviction in a major dip scenario or profit-taking as Bitcoin has strengthened, though the low Cliff Risk Index of 4 indicates minimal near-term expiration pressure.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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