Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing in an 81% probability that Bitcoin reaches $80,000 by end-of-2026, with the Yes position up 8 cents over seven days, suggesting modest bullish momentum. The extreme 600.8% implied yield on the No side indicates severe mispricing or tail-risk hedging, as the risk-adjusted yield of 601% reveals the No position is dramatically undervalued relative to its 19% probability. With $77.3M open interest but only $1.8M daily volume and a 4/10 cliff risk index, liquidity is concentrated, creating potential slippage for larger positions and suggesting the market may not be efficiently pricing the binary outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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