What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 77% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 59%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 55,000
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
59¢
↓ 50,000
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$138K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
207 days
Venue
Polymarket
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000
0xdaa486…990f
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 120,000
0xf9b6b5…cfe4
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 10,000
0xd8a584…7d29
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 30,000
0x903a13…69ef
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 140,000
0xf0a4c0…f15e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000
0x472c90…54b0
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 150,000
0xa7b594…1cda
Analysis
Markets currently assign an 95% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $80,000 by year-end 2026, with smaller probabilities allocated to higher price targets ($120,000 and $200,000) and lower thresholds. This reflects trader expectations of continued appreciation from current levels. The assessment depends heavily on macroeconomic conditions—particularly US monetary policy, inflation trajectories, and institutional adoption rates—which would shift probabilities if interest rates, regulatory clarity, or institutional inflows change materially. The runner-up contract at 49% suggests meaningful disagreement about intermediate price levels. Trading volume concentrates in downside protection ($45,000 and $50,000 thresholds), indicating hedging demand. Resolution occurs at year-end 2026, leaving approximately seven months for spot price discovery and event-driven volatility to move probabilities.
- ›Current Bitcoin spot price relative to the $80,000 threshold and trajectory of recent price action
- ›US Federal Reserve policy path and inflation data releases through December 2026, which affect risk-on appetite
- ›Regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency market access, custody, or institutional participation
- ›Trading volume and open interest trends in Bitcoin futures and spot markets, indicating conviction levels
- ›Macroeconomic recession probability and correlation shifts between Bitcoin and traditional financial assets
What moved the line
- Jun 2↑ 90,000↓11pp50→39¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2↓ 55,000↑9pp54→63¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4↓ 55,000↑6pp65→71¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5↓ 50,000↑6pp54→60¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6↓ 55,000↑5pp75→80¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 44% · 1d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 52% · 1d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 13% · 1d
- Will the Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index on Jun 1, 2026 be above 1065last 4% · 1d
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___last 55% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in bitcoin.
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin Sentiment Sours: Market Paints a Bearish Picture for Q3 2026
Bitcoin is down 2.31% on the day (IBIT), and prediction markets now give a 72% probability that BTC will drop below $55,000 in 2026, up 2 points today. The odds of reclaiming $100,000 by July 1 are just 1%, a stark reversal of relatively recent bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Sell-Off Deepens: Markets Price Sub-$50k Probability Above 50%
Bitcoin tumbled over 5%, dragging down IBIT and ETHE. Prediction markets now assign a 53% probability of BTC hitting $50k and a 39% chance of $45k by year-end. Risk-off sentiment dominates as traders flee crypto.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.