What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 86% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 82%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 60,000
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
82¢
↑ 70,000
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$76K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
196 days
Venue
Polymarket
15 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000
0xdaa486…990f
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 120,000
0xf9b6b5…cfe4
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 140,000
0xf0a4c0…f15e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 75,000
0x84fdc3…4fdf
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 70,000
0x7b9072…daa8
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 95,000
0xacec7e…a784
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 60,000
0xa157e5…47d6
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 25,000
0xe326d1…e775
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 20,000
0x23fb92…69fc
Analysis
Markets currently assign an 95% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $80,000 by year-end 2026, with smaller probabilities allocated to higher price targets ($120,000 and $200,000) and lower thresholds. This reflects trader expectations of continued appreciation from current levels. The assessment depends heavily on macroeconomic conditions—particularly US monetary policy, inflation trajectories, and institutional adoption rates—which would shift probabilities if interest rates, regulatory clarity, or institutional inflows change materially. The runner-up contract at 49% suggests meaningful disagreement about intermediate price levels. Trading volume concentrates in downside protection ($45,000 and $50,000 thresholds), indicating hedging demand. Resolution occurs at year-end 2026, leaving approximately seven months for spot price discovery and event-driven volatility to move probabilities.
- ›Current Bitcoin spot price relative to the $80,000 threshold and trajectory of recent price action
- ›US Federal Reserve policy path and inflation data releases through December 2026, which affect risk-on appetite
- ›Regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency market access, custody, or institutional participation
- ›Trading volume and open interest trends in Bitcoin futures and spot markets, indicating conviction levels
- ›Macroeconomic recession probability and correlation shifts between Bitcoin and traditional financial assets
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Bitcoin price action: ETF inflows push near-term odds higher
Bitcoin’s Aug 7, 2026 settlement price saw a sharp 5¢ move on the $63,000 tranche, driven by the largest single-day ETF net inflow in three weeks. The monthly trimmed mean above $65,000 now trades at 73¢, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Range-Bound but ETH Strength Points to Altcoin Season
Bitcoin prediction markets are steady with the Aug 7 price centered around $67K (67¢). Ethereum has a 59% chance of being above $2000 by end of August (ETHMAXMON). The crypto market is showing signs of rotation into altcoins, with XRP and SOL also seeing modest upward bias. No major catalyst today, but ETH’s relative strength is notable.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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