Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026?

This market prices Solana reaching $320 at just 5% probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,678% for "Yes" positions, suggesting severe underpricing relative to the ~4.3x upside required from current levels over 259 days. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $30,274 open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates illiquidity that could make entry/exit difficult, while the cliff risk index of 19 suggests meaningful tail risk around the November 2025 resolution window. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action suggest this discount may reflect genuine skepticism rather than recent momentum shifts, though the extreme yield warrants investigation into whether this represents genuine market inefficiency or hidden risks in the resolution mechanics.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Solana (SOL/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance SOL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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Regime

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