Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 19% probability reflects a 600.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the market may be underpricing Zcash's downside risk given the 26-month timeframe and volatile crypto environment.
Analysis
The 19% probability reflects a 600.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the market may be underpricing Zcash's downside risk given the 26-month timeframe and volatile crypto environment. With only $200 in 24-hour volume against $1.1M open interest, liquidity is notably thin, creating potential slippage and making the 3¢ spread less meaningful as a true price discovery mechanism. The neutral regime and modest 7-day price movement (18¢ to 19¢) indicate no recent directional conviction, though the 4 Cliff Risk Index warrants attention to potential tail events as we approach the November 2025 observation window.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Zcash (ZEC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:35 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ZEC/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ZEC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x8fea0def1c8bf47394f46c2e5428edca52c12e4eb690705a71aec57fd5db2b0b yes 100