What is the current probability for "Will Zcash reach $600 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 37¢ (37% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Zcash reach $600 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 303.2% and 73.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Zcash reach $600 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Zcash reach $600 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Zcash reach $600 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market with only $1,031.87 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows extreme implied yields (159% for Yes, 125% for No), suggesting severe mispricing or high uncertainty about Zcash's ability to appreciate 10x from current levels to $600 by end-2026.

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37¢

Bid/Ask 21/52¢·Spread 31¢·Vol $0·OI $573.665·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0x5c60f587c76b49b7b3236cdb7f2a8d796aa9566659da670407bc2181aa8499cb

7-day price1811 snapshots · 7 regime

74¢37¢ current

Apr 824¢May 1

Analysis

14d ago

This illiquid market with only $1,031.87 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows extreme implied yields (159% for Yes, 125% for No), suggesting severe mispricing or high uncertainty about Zcash's ability to appreciate 10x from current levels to $600 by end-2026. The 47¢ price has doubled from 24¢ over seven days amid elevated realized volatility of 927%, indicating recent momentum that may not reflect fundamental catalysts given the neutral regime score and minimal information arrival rate of 3.7 events per hour. With 259 days to expiry and a wide 14¢ spread, this market lacks sufficient depth to reliably price the risk, making it vulnerable to manipulation or sharp reversals once liquidity improves.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Zcash (ZEC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:35 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ZEC/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ZEC_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 303.2%

IY (No) 73.5%

Adj IY 83%

CRI 2

RV 3000%

VR 24.02

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	303.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	73.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	83%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3000%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	24.02	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	7.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.73	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:39:55 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 1:38:57 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x5c60f587c76b49b7b3236cdb7f2a8d796aa9566659da670407bc2181aa8499cb yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →