Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?

The 3% probability reflects an extremely bullish gold scenario requiring a roughly 12% rally from current levels within 74 days, with the implied yield on the "Yes" side reaching an extraordinary 15,945%—a signature of deep out-of-the-money pricing. Despite modest 24-hour volume of $123k against $28.7M open interest, the zero spread and recent price uptick from 2¢ to 3¢ suggest some accumulation of bullish positioning, though the neutral regime score (0.341) and elevated cliff risk index (32) indicate this remains a tail-risk bet vulnerable to sharp repricing. The massive yield asymmetry (15,945% vs. 15.3%) underscores how mispriced the "No" side appears relative to historical gold volatility, making this an attractive contrarian short for risk-tolerant traders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Indicators

Regime

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