What is the current probability for "Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $35,000 (HIGH) in December?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $35,000 (HIGH) in December?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1658.4% and 12.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $35,000 (HIGH) in December?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $35,000 (HIGH) in December?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $35,000 (HIGH) in December?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 5/11¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $21.149·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0x732e87ae3dbe0c734a993b209c5baa6fc278ea3a2b27028d3c8ee91296ec190f

7-day price52 snapshots · 2 regime

49¢8¢ current

Apr 86¢Apr 17

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1658.4%

IY (No) 12.5%

Adj IY 829%

CRI 12

Overround 1.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1658.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	829%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:51:02 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x732e87ae3dbe0c734a993b209c5baa6fc278ea3a2b27028d3c8ee91296ec190f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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