What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit by end of December?
Leader sits at 92% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 82%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 1,500
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
82¢
↓ 55,000
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$373K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
208 days
Venue
Polymarket
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000
0xdaa486…990f
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 100
0xeae133…4467
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
What price will Zcash hit in 2026?: ↓ 100
0xaea52e…cad5
What price will Zcash hit in 2026?: ↑ 1000
0xad7176…645f
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↑ 1000
0xa0ae2e…e29e
What price will Zcash hit in 2026?: ↑ 1100
0x280f53…a12f
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↑ 1100
0xe3eb7d…5f8e
Analysis
This market estimates a 27% chance the Nasdaq 100 index will fall below $21,000 by December 31, 2026. The probability reflects current market positioning and recent volatility, with the index trading significantly above this threshold as of May 2026. The main drivers of this prediction are macroeconomic conditions—particularly Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, and corporate earnings growth—which determine whether large-cap tech and growth stocks maintain their valuations or face a substantial correction. The most significant catalyst will be the quarterly earnings reports throughout 2026 and any major shifts in interest rate expectations, which directly influence discount rates for high-growth companies that dominate the Nasdaq 100. Economic data releases, especially employment reports and inflation indicators, will provide critical signals about recession risk and monetary policy direction. Resolution depends entirely on where the index closes on December 31, 2026.
- ›Federal Reserve interest rate policy and forward guidance; markets price in expectations of rate cuts or hikes that materially affect equity valuations
- ›Aggregate earnings growth for Nasdaq 100 components; earnings revisions upward or downward substantially move index valuations
- ›Recession probability; historical data shows the Nasdaq 100 typically declines 20-40% during U.S. recessions
- ›Geopolitical or systemic financial events between now and year-end that could trigger broad risk-off sentiment
- ›Valuations relative to historical averages; current price-to-earnings ratios relative to long-term trends influence downside risk assessment
What moved the line
- Jun 5↓ 100↑20pp18→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 31↑ 100↑14pp38→52¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5↓ 1,500↑11pp74→85¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5↑ 1000↓10pp30→20¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2↓ 55,000↑9pp54→63¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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