Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T?

The 17¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in this narrow $1.25T-$1.50T valuation band, with a massive 28¢ spread and only $5.18 in 24-hour volume indicating severe illiquidity that makes the quoted probability unreliable. The realized volatility of 2,472% and recent doubling from 8¢ to 17¢ over seven days suggest high uncertainty around SpaceX's eventual IPO timing and valuation range, while the 2.7 information arrivals per hour signal active market discussion despite minimal trading activity. The Cliff Risk Index of 5 and neutral regime score suggest this market lacks clear directional momentum, making it vulnerable to sharp repricing on any concrete IPO announcements.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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