What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 94% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
94%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
1 contracts
Top contract
94¢
$4K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be
What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?: 1.75-2.00T
0xb5110c…87af
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that SpaceX's valuation will land between $1.75-2.00 trillion if the company goes public. At 62% probability, this outcome is considered more likely than not, though substantial uncertainty remains across five valuation bands. SpaceX's IPO timeline and final valuation depend on company profitability, revenue growth from Starlink and launch services, and broader market conditions for mega-cap tech IPOs. The most immediate catalyst is any official announcement from SpaceX or its leadership regarding IPO timing, which would likely resolve significant portions of this uncertainty before year-end 2026.
- ›SpaceX's Starlink revenue growth trajectory and path to profitability, which directly affects enterprise valuation multiples
- ›Comparable market valuations for large-cap aerospace and satellite operators at the time of filing
- ›Prevailing IPO market conditions and investor appetite for capital-intensive space infrastructure businesses in 2026
- ›SpaceX's disclosed or estimated financial metrics (revenue, EBITDA, cash flow) released closer to any prospective IPO filing
- ›Competition from Blue Origin, Amazon's Project Kuiper, and other commercial space ventures affecting SpaceX's competitive positioning
What moved the line
- Jun 151.75-2.00T↑7pp93→100¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 111.75-2.00T↓6pp95→89¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 131.75-2.00T↑4pp89→93¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (94% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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