What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing September 30, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 465.6% implied yield on the No side versus 103.1% on Yes, suggesting strong consensus that "Headwind" won't be mentioned during Progressive's next earnings call, yet the No contract trades at only 32¢.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 465.6% implied yield on the No side versus 103.1% on Yes, suggesting strong consensus that "Headwind" won't be mentioned during Progressive's next earnings call, yet the No contract trades at only 32¢. The $54.25 open interest against just $10 in 24-hour volume indicates illiquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the 10¢ spread (14.7% of midpoint) reflects this thin market. With 167 days to expiration and a low info arrival rate of 0.2/hour, there's minimal near-term catalyst pressure, making this a speculative bet on whether management will use a relatively common business term during their earnings discussion.
Resolution rules
If Headwind is said by any The Progressive Corporation representative (including the operator of the call) during the next The Progressive Corporation earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEARNINGSMENTIONPGR-26APR15-HEAD yes 100