When will Barack Obama's presidential library open to the public?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that When will Barack Obama's presidential library open to the public?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market is pricing in an 88% probability that Obama's presidential library opens by July 1, 2026, but the extreme 3,933% implied yield on the No side combined with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,965 open interest suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing of tail risk.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 88% probability that Obama's presidential library opens by July 1, 2026, but the extreme 3,933% implied yield on the No side combined with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,965 open interest suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing of tail risk. The 8-cent spread and flat 7-day price action indicate minimal recent conviction, while the high cliff risk index (8) warns that resolution uncertainty could create sharp repricing closer to the July 2026 deadline. This appears to be a thin, speculative market where the Yes price may be artificially inflated due to limited liquidity rather than fundamental confidence in the opening timeline.
Resolution rules
If Barack Obama's presidential library opens to the public before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBOLIBRARYOPEN-26-JUL01 yes 100