When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. This illiquid market with just $41 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows a 21% probability for BLA submission by September 2026, but the extreme 998% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or genuine uncertainty about near-term regulatory progress.
Analysis
This illiquid market with just $41 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows a 21% probability for BLA submission by September 2026, but the extreme 998% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or genuine uncertainty about near-term regulatory progress. The wide 9¢ spread and minimal trading activity make this difficult to trade meaningfully, though the modest 1¢ price decline over seven days suggests weak conviction either direction. With 138 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a liquid market reflecting consensus expectations.
Resolution rules
If Beam Therapeutics Inc. submits a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-26SEP01 yes 100