What is the current probability for "When will Discord IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 53¢ (53% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 193 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Discord IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 240.3% and 148.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Discord IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Discord IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 53% probability that When will Discord IPO?. This contract trades at 53¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $715 open interest, and the 8¢ spread represents a concerning 17% bid-ask gap that inflates the displayed 207.7% implied yield.

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53¢

Bid/Ask 45/53¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $7.3·OI $722.45·Closes Nov 1, 2026·193d remaining

KXIPODISCORD-26NOV01

7-day price189 snapshots · 2 regime

50¢44¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $715 open interest, and the 8¢ spread represents a concerning 17% bid-ask gap that inflates the displayed 207.7% implied yield. The 7-day price surge from 21¢ to 47¢ (124% move) combined with 151% realized volatility and a neutral regime suggests recent information arrival (0.4/h) may have driven speculative positioning rather than fundamental conviction. With 198 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, traders should be cautious that the high yield reflects illiquidity premium and execution risk rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.

Resolution rules

If Discord confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 240.3%

IY (No) 148.4%

Adj IY 96%

CRI 1

Overround 4.4%

LAS 0.20

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	240.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	148.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	96%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.20	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:45:16 PM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPODISCORD-26NOV01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →