SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·10 source contracts·Kalshi 10·refreshed just now·Closes Jun 1, 2027 · 340d

When will Discord IPO

Leader sits at 54% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

54%

Before Jun 1, 2027

runner-up 52¢leader 54¢

Outcomes

10

winner-take-all

Runner-up

52¢

Before Apr 1, 2027

Spread

2pp

contested

24h volume

$75

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 1, 2027

340 days

Venue

Kalshi

10 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBefore Jun 1, 2027: 54% (22 days, 11 points)Before Jun 1, 2027: 54% on 2026-06-24Before Apr 1, 2027: 52% (22 days, 14 points)Before Apr 1, 2027: 52% on 2026-06-20Before May 1, 2027: 52% (22 days, 13 points)Before May 1, 2027: 52% on 2026-06-21
Before Jun 1, 202754¢Before Apr 1, 202752¢Before May 1, 202752¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 22d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 63% probability reflects market assessment that Discord will complete an initial public offering by June 2026. This represents moderate conviction rather than overwhelming consensus, with significant uncertainty remaining about timing and market conditions. Discord's IPO timeline depends primarily on two factors: the company's readiness to pursue public markets and broader market conditions for tech IPOs. Recent performance of comparable companies going public—particularly in the social media and communication software sectors—influences trader expectations. The most immediate resolution catalyst is late May and early June 2026, when company leadership decisions or public filings would clarify near-term intentions. Broader tech IPO sentiment, indicated by recent competitor valuations and market volatility, also shapes the probability substantially.

  • Discord has not publicly announced IPO plans as of May 2026, leaving launch timing and feasibility uncertain
  • Recent IPO volume and pricing in comparable sectors (communication platforms, social networks) directly affects perceived viability of a Discord offering
  • Discord's private valuation trajectory and reported profitability or cash position would influence management's willingness to go public in the specified timeframe
  • Federal Reserve policy and equity market volatility in Q2 2026 affect receptivity to new tech IPOs
  • Any regulatory developments affecting social platforms or communication software could accelerate or delay IPO timing

What moved the line

  • Jun 20Before Dec 1, 20269pp4233¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 21Before Jan 1, 20273pp4744¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in markets

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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