What is the current probability for "When will Rippling IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 24¢ (24% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 193 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Rippling IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4532.7% and 7.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Rippling IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Rippling IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that When will Rippling IPO?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable.

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24¢

Bid/Ask 4/13¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $5·Closes Nov 1, 2026·193d remaining

KXIPORIPPLING-26NOV01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable. The asymmetric implied yields (4419% for Yes vs 7.7% for No) reflect the tiny position size rather than genuine market conviction, and the wide 9¢ spread further signals thin trading. The recent price decline from 5¢ to 4¢ over seven days, combined with 198 days to expiration and a moderate 24 cliff risk index, suggests this contract lacks sufficient liquidity to serve as a meaningful probability estimate for Rippling's IPO timing.

Resolution rules

If Rippling confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4532.7%

IY (No) 7.9%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

Overround 0.1%

LAS 2.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4532.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	2.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:43:42 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:38:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPORIPPLING-26NOV01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →