When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2027. The market has experienced notable upward momentum, rising from 34¢ to 41¢ over seven days before settling at 35¢, suggesting recent volatility around FDA approval expectations for this psychedelic therapy.
Analysis
The market has experienced notable upward momentum, rising from 34¢ to 41¢ over seven days before settling at 35¢, suggesting recent volatility around FDA approval expectations for this psychedelic therapy. With only $5 in 24-hour volume against $471 open interest, liquidity is extremely thin, making the 3¢ spread potentially misleading for actual execution prices. The 98.7% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the asymmetric risk profile typical of binary FDA approval bets, though the neutral regime score and 532 days to expiry suggest the market may be pricing in genuine uncertainty rather than imminent approval catalysts.
Resolution rules
If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFDAAPPROVALDATECMPS-360-27OCT01 yes 100