When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List
Leader sits at 58% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2027
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
Before November
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$604
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
192 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List
When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before November
KXFDAANNOUNCE-BPC-26NOV01
When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before September
KXFDAANNOUNCE-BPC-26SEP01
When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before 2027
KXFDAANNOUNCE-BPC-27JAN01
When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before July
KXFDAANNOUNCE-BPC-26JUL01
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 43% chance that the FDA will reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List by a specific future date. The current probability reflects BPC-157's status as a peptide without FDA approval for therapeutic use, balanced against growing research interest and potential pathway movements. Key factors driving this level include the peptide's current regulatory classification, the pace of clinical research submissions, and FDA's historical approach to bulk drug categorization. The most significant catalyst would be an FDA announcement, formal petition for reclassification, or a major clinical program submission that signals regulatory acceptance. BPC-157's track record in research demonstrates bioactivity in animal models, but human clinical evidence remains limited, creating uncertainty about whether the FDA would elevate its classification status in the near term.
- ›Current BPC-157 regulatory status as an unapproved investigational substance without existing Category 1 designation
- ›Pace of clinical trial initiation or IND applications submitted to FDA that specifically reference BPC-157
- ›Historical FDA timelines for bulk drug substance reclassifications and typical catalyst events that trigger such reviews
- ›Competition from other peptide therapies with more advanced clinical development status
- ›Public or regulatory signals indicating FDA's receptiveness to BPC-157 programs in therapeutic areas like gastroenterology or neuroprotection
What moved the line
- Jun 18Before November↑21pp34→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Before 2027↓17pp59→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Before 2027↑17pp42→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Before September↑12pp27→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Before November↑8pp26→34¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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