When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List
Leader sits at 54% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Before November
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$366
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
130 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List
When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before September
KXFDAANNOUNCE-BPC-26SEP01
When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before 2027
KXFDAANNOUNCE-BPC-27JAN01
When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before November
KXFDAANNOUNCE-BPC-26NOV01
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the FDA will reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List before the end of 2026. The 46% price for a 2026 announcement versus 29% for one before November suggests traders see a meaningful but uncertain timeline. Key drivers include BPC-157's current regulatory status, pending FDA guidance or applications, and the agency's administrative capacity. The main catalyst would be an official FDA announcement or published guidance on BPC-157's reclassification. Without imminent regulatory signals, traders are pricing in genuine uncertainty about whether formal action occurs within the 5-month window remaining in 2026, versus pushing into 2027 or beyond.
- ›BPC-157's current FDA classification and whether any formal reclassification petitions or applications are pending
- ›The FDA's historical timeline for similar bulk drug substance reclassifications and current agency workload
- ›Published or announced FDA guidance specifically addressing BPC-157's regulatory pathway
- ›Market concentration risk: total 24-hour volume across three contracts is approximately $1,578, indicating moderate liquidity and potential information gaps
- ›The gap between 'Before November' (29%) and 'Before 2027' (46%) suggests traders estimate only ~17 percentage points of probability mass for the December-January window
What moved the line
- Aug 19Before 2027↑25pp32→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Before 2027↓14pp57→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Before September↓5pp11→6¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Before November↓5pp41→36¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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