When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant recent volatility, with the price declining 32% over seven days from 17¢ to 25¢, suggesting weakening conviction in near-term FDA approval odds despite COMP360's clinical progress.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant recent volatility, with the price declining 32% over seven days from 17¢ to 25¢, suggesting weakening conviction in near-term FDA approval odds despite COMP360's clinical progress. The 8¢ spread and minimal liquidity ($751 open interest) create execution challenges, though the asymmetric implied yields (377.7% for Yes versus 18.2% for No) indicate the market is pricing substantial approval risk within the 440-day window. The moderate cliff risk index of 5 and neutral regime suggest this is a genuine uncertainty market rather than one driven by imminent catalysts, making the recent price drop potentially meaningful for contrarian positioning.
Resolution rules
If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFDAAPPROVALDATECMPS-360-27JUL01 yes 100