Will Joey Bosa play for New York Giants in 2026-27?

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Joey Bosa play for New York Giants in 2026-27?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Polymarket, closing August 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 57¢ spread and only $10.2k open interest, suggesting minimal trader confidence in price discovery.

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50¢
Bid/Ask 1/98¢·Spread 97¢·Vol $0·OI $3.1·Closes Aug 31, 2026·124d remaining
0xfa248783a84947d4f8ec2f92590dece3614cb7696b83485585dfa781c3630ea0

Analysis

13d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 57¢ spread and only $10.2k open interest, suggesting minimal trader confidence in price discovery. The 28¢ yes price implies a 686.5% annualized yield, an unusually high figure that likely reflects the thin liquidity and wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine market conviction about Bosa's 28% probability of joining the Giants. With 137 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this market appears underutilized and potentially mispriced due to lack of trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the next team Joey Bosa officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Joey Bosa does not officially join a new team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Joey Bosa joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Joey Bosa is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official signing announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NFL and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 295.2%
IY (No) 295.2%
Adj IY 148%
CRI 1
Overround 15.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)295.2%
IY (No)295.2%
Adj IY148%
CRI1
Overround15.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
97¢
Computed
4/29/2026, 8:44:07 AM
Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 8:38:27 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xfa248783a84947d4f8ec2f92590dece3614cb7696b83485585dfa781c3630ea0 yes 100

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