Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

This ultra-long-tail market pricing a Trump-Putin meeting in China at just 4¢ offers an extreme 9,286% implied yield on the "Yes" side, though the 4,500% realized volatility and 19 Cliff Risk Index signal severe pricing instability rather than genuine opportunity. The 7-day doubling from 2¢ to 4¢ combined with a 2.72 vol ratio and 1.4 info arrivals per hour suggest recent news flow is driving speculative positioning in a market with modest $16K open interest and $6.6K daily volume. With 75 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the extreme yield likely reflects both the low base-rate probability of such a meeting occurring and the market's thin liquidity making small position changes swing prices dramatically.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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