Will Trump and Putin not meet?

The 79¢ price reflects strong market conviction that Trump and Putin won't meet by June 30, 2026, though the extreme 1857.5% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity on that tail. The sharp 6-cent decline over 7 days combined with 284% realized volatility and a 2.49 vol ratio suggests recent negative news flow regarding diplomatic prospects, while the modest $886k daily volume and tight 2¢ spread indicate reasonable liquidity for a geopolitical event market with 74 days to expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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