Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

The market is pricing an 85% probability that Zelenskyy and Putin won't meet before 2027, reflecting the current geopolitical reality of active conflict, though the extreme 802% implied yield on the "No" side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity on that outcome. With $21.3M open interest and only a 1¢ spread, this is a well-capitalized market, but the 71% realized volatility and 6/10 cliff risk index indicate significant uncertainty despite the high headline probability—likely driven by unpredictable diplomatic developments or potential ceasefire negotiations. The market has drifted 3¢ higher over seven days in a neutral regime with modest information arrival (0.3/h), suggesting gradual repricing toward lower meeting odds as the conflict persists, though 258 days remain for major geopolitical shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade