Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?

The 3-cent price reflects an extremely low probability (3%) for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Turkey before year-end 2026, yet the Yes position offers an extraordinary 4600% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in near-zero realistic odds given ongoing geopolitical tensions. With $16.3M open interest against just $1.3M daily volume, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk and indicating this is a niche speculative market rather than a consensus view. The extreme 6563% realized volatility and 32 cliff risk index signal this market experiences sharp, sudden repricing events, likely tied to peace negotiations or diplomatic developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade