Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
This contract is priced at 68¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 65¢ bid, 70¢ ask, 5¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
15
Family volume
$389K
Best sibling
DeepSeek 2¢
Ticker
0xd0e97d28…c55a
Price history
68¢ current
+15¢Orderbook snapshot
65 / 70¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0xd0e97d28…c55a
Event family
Which company has second best AI model end of June.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$389K
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Anthropic 68¢
Current share
3%
Anthropic
polymarket · 0xd0e97d28b706d26f47ada6b739674efe7768bf7a407481008474d5a0d4c4c55a
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0xb3d3ae2905daa2947e1f453da4cda4e7285d6c93fd8cbbb867d0e3f262bb59fe
OpenAI
polymarket · 0x06a7a20c1c36f9f894d759237644e2dd4b446c048f2bfda6d8bc2b99313002c6
Meituan
polymarket · 0x59dff378c3598705f78efca002e933d8136ca975dc2ac0bb1aef43a7dc706525
xAI
polymarket · 0xe563417f1554295028487f40053056a79d880efc30b9fb0ddaefb967a7ee0da1
Z.ai
polymarket · 0xbc3a6702307af90e1afd7b36140ce79925d4dc0b99fa430310b700c88cd53d4d
Alibaba
polymarket · 0xb5186781abd047b2bdd0999ecdce72a2b3d6746f4ea580155844f539b4f1a276
polymarket · 0x9a43c9ddeef87245a713570da886d5637666b4a3dba886162df4b271978ee5f3
Moonshot
polymarket · 0xa60eb953fc761941ea8c294ee40aa9b31b372ae7334ac8cb3bce63452018f14f
Mistral
polymarket · 0x1ecc71d5d53c676575e1e54ce30cbb6c3c5e16d1e38f7f5b5d11d206147124e9
Baidu
polymarket · 0x0c3da4680b29775e88025481b02c1d0a72e68b3de048b3b36cab5476bef1717a
Meta
polymarket · 0x689930141d77c87382fd554a8fcf778488e930a0a205a1fad67a83ecc114168f
Microsoft
polymarket · 0x944ce0888b284fde98f3f4d80d01745abd48996be694569c2db61108ddffb9e1
ByteDance
polymarket · 0xfd578b4374fcecfc57bb0c41ede2b87acf6421c1895dd2f29ecf2eb0b7e6243d
Amazon
polymarket · 0x46f5a0bb8562069a0fe0f1c3e905a2198de59bdd667555d889987637fddd6285
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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